Sunday, August 12, 2012

Rough Draft -- 2012 Quarterbacks 1.0

In part one of my preseason rankings, I'll be grading the quarterbacks 1-37. I stopped at 37 because that is the number of quarterbacks that are borderline, depending on how horrible your circumstances are, draftable. Don't draft the terrible quarterbacks. You'll also notice occasional lines and pictures. Those represent a new tier. Guys in the same tier are mostly interchangeable, and could be slid up and down based on personal preference. This board is subject to change. I'll do a final one some time right before the draft.

Tom Brady maybe be the first pick in the draft, and he may have a new deep threat, but he's not impressed.

1. Tom Brady, NE – He was very good last year, culminating in a Super Bowl loss fantasy championship-clinching week 17 performance. But he will be even better this year. The team brings back Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator, replacing no one -- the job was vacant the last two years, with duties split between a couple position coaches. More importantly, McDaniels brings with him Brandon Lloyd, a deep threat who two years ago (2010) was the best fantasy wide receiver (the best). More importantly, Brady is awesome every year.
     - My outrageous projection for his stats: 5,400 yards, 46 TDs, 7 Ints, 68% completion, 23 sacks
     - Likelihood of playing in week 17: 80%

2. Aaron Rodgers, GB – No one who has ever drafted him has been disappointed. They bring everyone back on an offense (except terrible Ryan Grant) that was fantastic and carried Ole Man to a regular season title. MOP: 4,700 yards, 41 TDs, 13 Ints, 72%, 34 sacks, 2 rushing TDs LOP 17: 49%

3. Drew Brees, NO – Last year’s leading scorer, and by A LOT – he scored 110 more points than Rodgers. You know what else was 110 points last year? Chris Johnson’s total. He plays in a deceptively tough division, so if you think the Saints are going to be playoff contenders, you think he’ll play in week 17. So why isn’t he my No. 1? Because Sean Payton is gone, and because when Payton was injured and stuck in the coaching booth last year, Brees threw 6 of his 14 picks. I also think the Saints are going to be in for a bumpy season. He’ll have plenty of great games, but he’ll also have plenty of Garrards*.
     - MOP: 5,100 yards, 37 TDs, 18 Ints, 66%, 31 sacks
     - LOP 17: 90%. I think the Saints are going to relatively stink and win 7 or 8 games, but why not let him play?
     (* a Garrard is a game where the quarterback scores between 12-15 points. Won’t help you, but won’t really hurt you either)

Sorry you've already gotten hurt, David, but I've got good news. I've named a stat after you.
4. Matt Stafford, DET – I assume he’ll be healthy. The defense is going to continue to suck. The offense added weapons (Ryan Broyles, Patrick Edwards). The running game is going to continue to not exist. What’s not to like? The only reason I don’t have him ahead of Brees is that he’s only done it once. Plus he’s got Calvin.
     - MOP: 5,200 yards, 48 TDs, 12 Ints, 64%, 41 sacks (I know these add up to more than Brees. Maybe he will try to kick an extra point and miss?)
    - LOP17: 90%. Even if they’re out of the playoffs, it’s not like they need to see what they’ve got in a young guy.

5. Philip Rivers – He was terrible last year! He threw 20 interceptions! His best receiver left and ran away to Tampa Bay! Stay away! Especially if you’re drafting ahead of me. ‘Cause he didn’t really suck last year. He sucked in the first half last year, but only cause he threw a ton of picks. He finished ninth in points, and only about 1.5/week from finishing sixth, which is one spot below where I have him ranked. In 2010 he had a career-year. 4,700 yards, 30 TDs. Last year he sucked and had 4,600 yards and 27 TDs. He threw more passes last year and was sacked fewer times. Remember Vincent Jackson sitting out most of 2010 because he’s a greedy asshole injured piece of trash who loves money and losing? He’s finally gone, so now Rivers can focus on what he does best – giving the ball to Gates and a random tiny fast guy (This year: Eddie Royal)
     - MOP: 5,200 yards, 33 TDs, 9 Ints, 68%, 33 sacks
     - LOP 17: 95%. They are going to have a chance to win the division, like they always do.

6. Matt Ryan – I ain’t lyin’, I love me some Matt Ryan. I hated him when he was drafted (lousy smug Boston College bourgeois prick). I hated him when the first play of his career was an 80 yard touchdown pass to Michael Jenkins some Ohio State bastard against the Lions. Well, I’ve come around. After he sucked in his second year, he has gotten better each season. He’s missed two games in the NFL, none since 2009. He finished last year eighth in points. He has two of the top 12 wide receivers in the league. But that’s not why I love him. The Falcons added offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter in the offseason. You might remember him from such teams as: Boise State when they first started being good ten years ago; Arizona State that year they weren’t terrible; Jacksonville that year David Garrard was sort of good; and Jacksonville that year Mike Sims-Walker and Mike Thomas were sort of good.
     - MOP: 4,600 yards, 38 TDs, 11 Ints, 63%, 25 sacks
     - LOP 17: 51%. I think they have the division locked up early. I think they’re good.

7. Tony Romo, – With all the talk about Cam Newton being amazing and Romo being a chocking piece of shit, nobody (read: possibly just me) seemed to notice that Romo finished ahead of Newton last year. He was fifth (FIFTH!) in points. He’s always good, so he’s boring. Plus he’s extremely unlikeable. But you can win the league with Romo as your QB1, and winning the league is, or should be, the goal of every team. Yes, they lost Laurent Robinson and replaced him with something named “Danny Coale,” but so what. The name on the back of his receivers jersey doesn’t ever seem to matter to him. Romo didn’t panic when the Cowboys cut former first-round pick Roy Williams, and he’s not panicking now. Plus, for the first time since he’s been the starter, the Cowboys are the LEAST talked about team in their division. Nobody thrives under vacuousness more than Romo.
     - MOP: 4,400 yards, 33 TDs, 6 Ints, 65%, 41 sacks
     - LOP 17: 88%.
This whole season will be one, giant Pro Bowl for Tony Romo

8. Mike Vick, PHI – I hate the idea of having him on my team, but you know what I hate even more? When television announcers toss around hyperbole. But you know what I hate less than that, but which also pertains to this fantasy football situation? The idea of having Nick Foles* on my team.
     - MOP: 3,100 yards (11 games) 24 TDs, 11 Ints, 61%, 27 sacks, 3 rushing tds, 350 rush yds.
     - LOP 17: If he’s healthy? 90%. In general? 60% (* Mike Kafka broke his hand the other day because he sucks.)

9. Cam Newton, CAR – Cam’s first 8 games: 2,393, 11 TDs, 9 Ints, 60.6%, 7 rushing TDs. Cam’s last 8 games: 1,658, 10 TDs, 8 Ints, 59%, 7 rushing TDs. Still pretty good, but not outrageous. They didn’t add any weapons and Steve Smith is now a year older.
     - MOP: 3,900 yds, 26 TDs, 15 Ints, 62%, 43 sacks, 9 rushing TDs, 550 rush yards
     - LOP 17: 95%
Poor, dog-killing Michael. Always getting hurt.

10. Josh Freeman, TB – Known in the past for his ability to give you a solid Freeman* every week, I believe Josh will take a step up this year and become a very solid Schaub**. So why is he so much higher than, say, Schaub? Well, 1) he is a big, tough, strong, supple guy who rarely gets hurt 2) he has a new coach. The entire team quit on the coach last year and Freeman (12th overall last year) struggled to adjust. 3) Chamionship Pedigree. He’s been the QB2 for each of the last two championships. If anyone knows how to lead a fantasy team in week 17, is Josh. He’s been there, and he’ll have the respect in the locker room. 
     - MOP: 3,800 yards, 28 TDs, 10 Ints, 62%, 28 sacks, 2 rushing TDs, 250 rush yards
     - LOP 17: 95%
     (* A rich man’s Garrard, a Freeman is between 15-18 points)
     (** 18-21)

11. Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF – Finished last year in the top 10, despite falling apart in the second half due to an injury. He might very well be healthy now. He also gets to play the terrible Pats defense twice, the (possibly) worse Jets defense twice and he went to Harvard.
     - MOP: 4,100 yards, 29 TDs, 19 Ints, 64%, 27 sacks
     - LOP: 95%

12. Peyton Manning, DEN – Not the guy you want to pair with Vick. I have no faith in him to play all 16 games. He has no deep ball, which means you’re basically hoping for a rich-man’s Chad Pennington season. Still, he’s Peyton. When he plays, he’ll play smart, he’ll complete a lot of passes, he won’t get sacked and he won’t throw pics.
     - MOP: (assuming 16 games) 3,900 yards, 32 TDs, 13 Ints, 71%, 20 sacks
     - LOP 17: 40%

13. Eli Manning, NYG – He was fantastic last year. 4,900 yards, Super Bowl all that other stuff. But the Giants are a running team. They drafted a new back in the first round who will replace the terrible, washed-up slob they had last year, Brandon Jacobs. The rest of the division is tough and improving.
     - MOP: 4,200 yards, 25 TDs, 19 Ints, 64%, 26 sacks
     - LOP 17: 99%.
Who's that above you? Some bearded dude from Harvard?

14. Andrew Luck, IND – He’s the most NFL-ready QB to ever come in to the league, and he’s coming into a league that is the most pass-friendly that it’s ever been. He might not put up more points than Cam did last year, but he’ll be a better passer and he’s got more weapons. MOP: 4,300 yards, 27 TDs, 23 Ints, 61%, 52 sacks, 4 rushing TDs, 250 rush yards LOP 17: 90%

15. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT – He was 11th last year, and they’re now without Mendenhall for the foreseeable future. I’ve seen Ike Redman play, I’ve had Ike Redman on my team. Ike Redman sucks, and the Steelers know it. Ben will air it out like he did in his Red Hawks days. They even drafted more offensive linemen for him. But still I drop him. Mike Wallace is holding out, which means he will strain his hamstring and miss time. Ben’s got a “small tear” in his rotator cuff. He might be good, but in fantasy football, if you aren’t improving, you’re getting worse.
     - MOP: 4,200 yards, 28 TDs, 14 Ints, 65%, 38 sacks
     - LOP 17: 70% 

16. Robert Griffin the Third, WAS – He’s really, really fast. More importantly, he is neither Rex Grossman, Donovan McNabb nor John Beck. Interesting thing about Grossman, McNabb and Beck, though. Last year they combined for 4,050 yards and 19 TDs. In 2009 it was 4,250 yards and 21 TDs. The Washington Racial Slurs drafted RG3 to be the quarterback, which means they must think he’s better than those guys. Having seen Rex and Donovan and Beck play, I agree.
     - MOP: 4,100 yards, 24 TDs, 25 Ints, 58%, 44 sacks, 7 rushing TDs, 400 rush yards
     - LOP 17: 90%

17. Carson Palmer, OAK – Probably low for him. If you throw out his first two games last year, which is what I’m conveniently going to do here, you wind up with 8 games. That is roughly half of an NFL season. In that half of an NFL season (the second half, in this case), Palmer threw for 2,300 yards, 10 TDs, 10 Ints, 63%. That’s not bad, if by not bad you mean, “the best 8 game stretch he has had since his knee exploded.” And that’s exactly what I mean.
     - MOP: 4,500 yards, 25 TDs, 18 Ints, 65%, 30 sacks
     - LOP 17: 85% 

18. Matt Schaub, HOU – Boy, is he ever good when he plays (20 ppg last year). Sort of. All his passing weapons are gone. Well, not gone so much as washed-up shells of their former selves. Plus he has only stayed healthy for a full season twice. Plus they run a lot. Plus his team will win the division with ease, so even if he is healthy, he’s probably not playing week 17, so he’ll kill you in the finals.
     - MOP: (12 games) 2,900 yards, 19 TDs, 10 Ints, 64%, 25 sacks
     - LOP 17: 25%
RG3 is extremely happy to be a third round pick as a rookie

19. Andy Dalton, CIN – I actually really like him. I moved him up from 23 and I wish I could move him higher. He was 16 last year. He’s bound to get better. AJ Green is a stud. I’m sick of writing about a guy on the Bengals. A full season of Palmer and Schaub, plus the rookies are now ahead of him. I’m fine with that. I’m also fine with having him available to me in the fourth round.
     - MOP: 3,500 yards, 24 TDs, 11 Ints, 60%, 22 sacks
     - LOP 17: 95%

20. Matt Flynn, SEA – He could be dynamite. He also could be Kolb. He also could be on the bench watch Tarvaris be Tarvaris. I guess my point is, if you draft Flynn, you better have a good third quarterback.
     - MOP: 3,800 yards, 25 TDs, 14 Ints, 63%, 34 sacks
     - LOP 17: Assuming he’s actually the starter? 95% They’ll be in the playoff hunt.

21. Matt Hasselbeck, TEN – He is boring and bald and a placeholder and he finished 13th in points last year. If they don’t stay in the wildcard chase, he will get replaced by Jake Locker, probably around the time of the Titans week 11 bye. That is a seriously late bye week. He will seriously help you win games until then.
     - MOP: (10 games) 2,600 yards, 15 TDs, 11 Ints, 61%, 15 sacks
     - LOP17: 5%.

22. Joe Flacco, BAL – One of these years he’s gonna be good. He has to be. Luckily for me, he won’t be on my team when that happens. His stats for the past three years have been basically identical. I have no reason to think anything will change this year.
     - MOP: 3,600 yards, 23 TDs, 12 Ints, 62%, 35 sacks
     - LOP 17: 99%
I don't want to draft you, either. But somebody has to.

23. Ryan Tannehill, MIA – He might not even start week one, but if you draft Matt Moore or David Garrard, they aren’t starting for your fantasy team in week one either. Nor in week two, nor three, nor four. By the time teams start having a bye week, the Dolphins will have turned to Tannehill, if he’s not starting from week one. I don’t love him, but as a QB3, you just need someone to get you through your two bye weeks. According the HBO, he has been amazing in training camp and he might very well be able to do that.
     - MOP: 3,300 yards, 15 TDs, 20 Ints, 57%, 43 sacks
     - LOP 17: 90%

24. Matt Cassell, KC – They’re getting Jamal Charles back. They also have Peyton Hillis. They love to run. Cassell isn’t good enough to give them any reason to pass.
     - MOP: 3,000 yards, 22 TDs, 14 Ints, 57%, 34 sacks
     - LOP: 80%

25. Alex Smith, SF – I know they added a few receivers for him, but I don’t know why they would let him pass any more than last year. They added a few running backs (LaMichael James, Terrible, Washed-Up Slob Brandon Jacobs), too. His value comes from not making mistakes, which means his value is in not hurting you. Unless he is terrible, which is very possible. If he sucks, which his career has seemed to show that he will, Harbough won’t hesitate to put Colin Kaepernick in. Smith won’t win you any games, but he might be OK in a bye week.
    - MOP: 3,200 yards, 16 TDs, 10 Ints, 60%, 40 sacks
    - LOP: 75%
Mrs. Dolphins Starting Quarterback

26. Sam Bradford – It was awesome when Shawn drafted him too high last year so I didn’t get a chance to. He was terrible. He narrowly avoided finishing the season negative, which would have put him in a club with JaMarcus Russell and Derek Anderson. But he’s young and I have high hopes for him still. They added some weapons, and the upgrade from Steve Spagnoulo to Jeff Fisher is about the same as the upgrade from banging a prostitute addicted to meth* to banging supermodel Karlie Kloss. Sure, you’ll probably have a few venereal diseases that will haunt you for the rest of your life, which will mean Karlie will force you into years of wearing a condom until finally she trusts you enough to inherit the venereal diseases from you and raise a small family of venereal-diseased children, but still. At least you’re not banging a meth-addict hooker with rotten teeth anymore. I think that’s really the best thing you can say about Sam Bradford.
     - MOP: 3,100 yards, 18 TDs, 19 Ints, 59%, 40 sacks
     - LOP 17: 90%

     (* Before Sam Bradford started banging supermodel Karlie Kloss, he used to bang someone named Kelsey Kurtz. I have no reason to believe Kelsey Kurtz did meth and/or was/is a prostitute. She probably does have an STD, but she almost certainly got it from banging Bradford, and not the other way around. She’s actually quite striking. Here, look. She seems like a good, wholesome girl. She’s got a Pintrest and everything. Still, she is not a supermodel. Although I guess it’s probably more likely that the supermodel is addicted to methamphetamines. Fisher is a good coach though. And he likes to run, so Bradford won’t pass. That was my point.)

27. John Skelton, ARI, 28. Kevin Kolb, ARI – They both suck. Kolb will get the first opportunity to suck, then when he gets through sucking, it will be Skelton’s turn to suck. It’s possible they might then give Kolb another chance to suck. I sort of think Skelton sucks less, but Kolb is getting paid more money to suck. Have a fourth quarterback.
    - MOP: (8 games each. This is the combined total) 4,000 yards, 24 TDs, 24 Ints, 57%, 60 sacks
    - LOP: 90% (yes, that mean’s I believe there is a 10% chance neither is playing at the end of the year.)

29. Brandon Weeden, CLE – It’s not that I’m opposed to 29-year-old rookie quarterbacks. I AM opposed to 29-year-old rookie quarterbacks, but that isn’t why I have the fairly talented Brandon Weeden this low. No, I’m opposed to 29-year-old rookie quarterbacks that have to play for the Cleveland Browns and throw the receivers that Cleveland Browns have. Spoiler alert for my wide receiver big board: the Browns receivers are bad, and I won’t be drafting them.
     - MOP: 2,600 yards, 12 TDs, 15 Ints, 55%, 47 sacks
     - LOP: 80% ( I question his ability to stay healthy being that he’s 29 and on the Browns)

Meet Karlie Kloss, Sam Bradford's main squeeze. At least he won't make you sit around and watch football with him every Sunday.

30. Timothy Richard Tebow, NYJ – Winner in real football, loser in fantasy football. I expect him to take over early (See 34. Mark Sanchez), put up terrible numbers win a few miraculous games, then get killed by the New York media and his teammates, start sobbing in a postgame interview because his feelings are hurt, crying, “I just want to be nice to everyone why can’t you guys just all leave me alone!” That sounds like a really bad experience for ones fantasy season.
     - MOP: 1,300 yards, 8 TDs, 7 Ints, 45%, 27 sacks, 7 rushing TDs, 600 rush yards
     - LOP: 85%

31. Jake Locker, TEN – I’m pretty sure he’ll play at some point, and I have no reason to think he’ll be bad if he does. If he is named the starter before the draft, he has the same rank as Hasselbeck.

32. Christian Ponder, MIN – He was roughly twice as good as Blaine Gabbert last year. They did not add anything to their offense.

33. Blaine Gabbert, JAC – He averaged about 4.5 ppg last year. They changed offensive coordinators, drafted Justin Blackmon, then signed Laurent Robinson to be their No. 1 WR. It’s possible he could be useful, but that possibility is somewhere just below the draftable line.

34. Mark Sanchez, NYJ – Here is a list of quarterbacks that Sanchize outscored last year: Mike Vick, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler some guy on the Bears, Matt Cassell, Tim Tebow. Regardless, I think he will react poorly to Jesus’ Tebow’s presence, get benched, sulk and submarine their season. I won’t be drafting any Jets.
     - MOP: (5 games) 1,200 yards, 8 TDs, 7 Ints, 56%, 13 sacks
     - LOP 17: 10% (the remaining 5% goes to Greg McIlroy: Winner)

35. Mike Kafka/Nick Folk, PHI – Draft the Philadelphia backup if you either have Vick or are trying to piss off the guy who has Vick.

36. Tarvaris Jackson, SEA – Worth mentioning because it is possible that he’ll be their starter. If that should happen, pretend I have him at 23, just ahead of Matt Cassell.

37. Chad Henne, JAC – Probably not draftable, but if they start playing close games and Blaine Gabbert keeps blowing them like he did last year, Henne might get in. Plus he played at Michigan.
Thataway, fellas. Give 'em hell!

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